India recorded below-normal rainfall in June, but the India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects above-normal precipitation across most parts of the country in July.
The IMD forecast comes as a relief for the agriculture sector, as June and July are considered critical months for sowing kharif crops. According to agriculture ministry data released on Friday, farmers have planted kharif crops over 24.1 million hectares, up 33% compared to last year.
Monsoon is crucial for agriculture
The timely arrival of the monsoon is crucial for India’s agricultural sector, as 56% of the net cultivated area and 44% of food production depend on monsoon rainfall. Normal precipitation is essential for robust crop production, stable food prices, especially for vegetables, and economic growth.
Agriculture contributes about 18% to India’s gross domestic product (GDP), underscoring the importance of a good monsoon.
Sectors, including coal-based power plants and steelmakers, also rely on the southwest monsoon, which delivers nearly 70% of the rainwater India needs for its farms and to replenish reservoirs and aquifers.
Rainfall in June-July
India recorded 16 days of below-normal rainfall between 11 and 27 June, ending the month with an 11% rainfall deficiency, the highest in five years.
The country received 147.2 mm of rainfall compared to the average of 165.3 mm in June, the seventh lowest since 2001. June precipitation accounts for 15% of the total rainfall during the four-month monsoon season (June-September), which averages 87 cm, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference on Monday.
However, the weather bureau expects normal to above-normal rains in July, with rainfall expected to be more than 106% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm, barring some parts of northeast, northwest, east and southwest peninsular India.
Early onset
After an early onset over Kerala and the northeastern region on 30 May, two and six days ahead of their respective arrival dates, and progressing normally up to Maharashtra until 9 June, the southwest monsoon lost momentum.
The IMD attributed this to three reasons: fewer low-pressure areas developing over the Bay of Bengal, sluggish monsoon advancement in the southern Indian Ocean, and a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase during early June.
As the MJO strengthened towards the end of the month and moved into the Indian Ocean region, contributing to the formation of low pressure over the Bay of Bengal, rainfall activity increased.
In June, northwest India recorded a 33% deficiency in rainfall, 14% in central India and 13% in east and northeast India. Only south India recorded surplus rainfall at 14%.
IMD said 12% of sub-divisional areas of India witnessed excess to large excess rainfall, 38% received normal rainfall, and 50% experienced deficient to large deficient rainfall.
In 20 of the past 25 years, June rainfall was below normal (less than 92% of the LPA), while July rainfall was normal (94-106% of the LPA) or above normal. Additionally, in 17 of those 25 years, despite below-normal June rainfall, the seasonal rainfall was normal or above normal, according to the IMD.
As the monsoon gathers pace, the IMD expects active monsoon conditions over northwest, east, and northeast India for the next five days.
“Southwest monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and entire Chandigarh. As the northern limit of monsoon now passes through 26°N/65°E, Jaisalmer, Sirsa, Kurukshetra, Rajpura, Ludhiana and 31.2°N/74.5°E, conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab in the next 2-3 days,” the it added.
The IMD said the El Niño phenomenon has finally dissipated, and neutral conditions are prevailing. These conditions are likely to turn into La Niña in the second half (August-September) of the monsoon season.
El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, which leads to changes in weather patterns globally. La Niña is the opposite, involving the cooling of surface waters in the sme region, leading to increased rainfall in some areas and drought in others.
